Tuesday, October 28, 2008
7 News/Suffolk U. Poll finds Obama maintains lead in Florida
MIAMI (WSVN) -- Seven News in conjunction with Suffolk University has conducted another exclusive Florida presidential poll leading up to the general election, and early numbers suggest Barack Obama still holds a narrow edge in the Sunshine State.
This is the second time this election season Seven News and Suffolk have teamed up, and the results this time say a lot about what is going on in the minds of Florida voters.
In a poll conducted last Thursday through Sunday of 600 likely voters, Obama leads Florida 49 percent to only 44 percent for McCain.
Still, the race is even tighter in two counties, which have been historically very good at predicting who wins Florida. Hillsborough and Monroe Counties have a deadlock: 42 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain.
The poll also asked about all of those who waited in hours-long lines to vote early, and among early voters, Obama crushes McCain, 60 to 40 percent.
Undecided voters were asked the question about their comfort levels with the candidates. Nineteen percent said they were not at all comfortable with McCain, while 31 percent said Obama made them uncomfortable, possibly signaling anti-Obama sentiment among those who say they are undecided. "If you put undecideds under a microscope they are not comfortable with Barack Obama," said David Paleologos of Suffolk University.
And despite all the furor over Sarah Palin's clothing expenditure, respondents were asked: "Does it concern you that the Republican National Committee bought $150,000 worth of clothes and fashion accessories for vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin?"
"Fifty-eight percent of the respondents say that the wardrobe did not matter to them it didn't affect their vote," Paleologos said.
Trust appeared to be a big issue for respondents. When asked: "Overall, which candidate do you trust more, Barack Obama or John McCain?" Forty-eight percent said Obama, 45 percent said McCain. "Voters slightly trust Barack Obama more than John McCain in the comfort level, statewide number, people perceive Obama as the more comfortable choice," explained Paleologos. Keep in mind, that's the answer from those who are definite on their choice for president, and 91 percent of respondents are decided.
The undecided sector, however, remains a variable for both McCain and Obama's camp. "They shouldn't count on the undecided numbers. I mean this comfort index has been working for us all year in the polling and thankfully for the Obama camp, it's only five or six percent," said Paleologos. If the undecided were much higher, it would pose a huge problem, potentially a game-changer problem."
All things considered, Nov. 4 could be a long, long night. "This could come right down to the wire," said Paleologos.
What about various sectors of the population? This poll seems to suggest that Latino voters could be the difference for either candidate. Latinos have the highest undecided rate: 11 percent.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.
(Copyright 2008 by Sunbeam Television Corp. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
